Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0331
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 31 2025 22:33:03

ACUS11 KWNS 312232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312231=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia and southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 312231Z - 010030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern Virginia and southern
Maryland for an increase in strong/severe storm potential. The
primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. It is still unclear if
a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
advancing east-northeastward across central Virginia -- ahead of a
broad midlevel trough and related surface front. Ahead of these
storms, earlier diurnal heating has resulted in upper 70s/lower 80s
surface temperatures and steep boundary-layer lapse rates (see 18Z
IAD sounding) amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. Despite this
low-level destabilization, weak midlevel lapse rates are still
limiting buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg). Around 40 kt of
west-southwesterly deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the
band of showers and storms could result in some convective
organization with eastward extent, and the steep low-level lapse
rates may promote damaging wind gusts -- depending on how organized
the cold pool can become. Given the weak buoyancy, it is still
unclear if a watch is needed, though convective trends are being
monitored.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7TDgCTqVJZpv7WvoaXCjUSleaSOOTO4LWS0l_u0C-7fWy3ul7m_NHXzQ9ZpEh4L857p48d0Zw=
cOkKwinrkAJ-aJAg88$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   36807803 37167825 38377799 38917767 39237716 39277677
            39087599 38727572 37807575 36917608 36657657 36707762
            36807803=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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