Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0318
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 31 2025 04:19:05

ACUS11 KWNS 310410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310409=20
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-310515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee...Far Western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 310409Z - 310515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next few
hours across eastern Tennessee. The threat may also affect far
western Virginia. Wind damage will become likely as a line of severe
storms moves in from the west. A tornado threat will also be
possible with intense cells within the line. Weather watch issuance
will be needed as the line approaches from the west.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
severe MCS located from southern Kentucky southwestward into western
Tennessee. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across middle and
eastern Tennessee are in the lower 60s F, and RAP analysis shows
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The MCS is being supported by
a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, which is moving
into the Tennessee Valley. In addition to the instability, the
Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots,
with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. This shear
environment will support a severe threat. Wind damage and tornadoes
will be the primary threats along the more intense parts of the
line.

...Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8MHTSyW65Cvs2ackJ-Ya-rVY959eIvQh3df1zBDnq3k4iiEW_O9BmnUDBcfX-qBKfTFIVCNlg=
XVCuRKiAPKJ8_UtCjY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34958601 34938460 34968354 35238305 36108267 36508302
            36588360 36578465 36288558 35868618 35608641 35408648
            35258648 35098641 34958601=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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