Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0317
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 31 2025 03:40:08

ACUS11 KWNS 310334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310333=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-310430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of western and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 310333Z - 310430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 76.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercell clusters continues across
portions of middle and western TN. Over middle TN, 50 kt of 0-6 km
shear (per OHX VWP) is oriented oblique to the line, which is
allowing supercells to stay along or immediately ahead of the gust
front. This is supporting ingestion of large boundary-layer
streamwise vorticity (around 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per OHX VWP) and a
greater tornado risk here. Farther southwest into western TN, 50 kt
of deep-layer shear is still supporting robust supercells, though
its parallel orientation to the gust front will continue favoring
slightly elevated inflow and a greater risk for large hail.

...Weinman.. 03/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!437ot6oxMZVJ-sdRjI0F6YH96PKPL8RKSTW_4ClsDd0QzWWUT1v1IXzM9gdDbt66rLFq6x63h=
Aj11WcSCtJ4egOAajQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35149071 36498713 36558679 36378643 35748654 35358714
            34828980 34689063 34919091 35149071=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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