Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0310
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 30 2025 23:12:32

ACUS11 KWNS 302312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302312=20
MIZ000-310045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...

Valid 302312Z - 310045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
continues.

SUMMARY...A northeastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a
severe-wind and embedded/brief tornado risk across southeastern
Lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with an established 70+ kt rear inflow
jet and embedded mesovorticies is tracking northeastward across
southeastern Lower Michigan at around 50 kt. The DTX VWP indicates
40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular to the gust front,
which should support continued maintenance of this system. As the
strong cold pool continues tracking into lower 60s F dewpoints,
around 70 mph wind gusts will remain possible. However, locally
stronger gusts up to 80 mph (and a brief tornado) are possible with
any line-embedded mesovorticies and in the vicinity of the
established rear-inflow jet.

...Weinman.. 03/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4wPkSq9hdCWIqNfNzXpCtEMa3KIhTHr8dAFbpff-BXP_sq37qnnFuwls0J6LBqtLFQ_SrM48z=
Wwzlz7Dx6T96-AS554$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42088361 42708388 43378452 43608480 43878472 44128405
            44108279 43918257 43008231 41968288 41868329 42088361=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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