Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 30 2025 18:24:51 AWUS01 KWNH 301824 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-302323- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Southwest AL...Western FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 301823Z - 302323Z SUMMARY...Very heavy rainfall continues to impact areas of far southern MS, southwest AL and the western part of the FL Panhandle. Extremely heavy rainfall rates persisting over the region with locally backbuilding and training cells will yield areas of locally significant/considerable flash flooding over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery continues to show a cluster of strong cold-topped convection with numerous overshooting tops over areas of the central Gulf Coast region extending from far southern MS eastward across southwest AL and into the western FL Panhandle. The convection continues to be anchored along a general north/south convergence axis and within a well-defined instability gradient. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches are in place across the area which coupled with some occasional mesocyclone activity has been yielding extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour with the stronger cores. Already there are Radar-QPE values across parts of Jackson County of 8 to 10 inches where significant backbuilding of convection has occurred. Very strong overshooting top activity has yielded some cloud top temperatures recently to near -70 C and there has been an overall expansion of convection over the last few hours to include more areas of southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle. The GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows some low-level cloud street activity upstream over southeast LA and southern MS as a destabilizing boundary layer couples with moist southwest flow. This low-level feed of moisture and instability should continue to support the downstream convective clusters, with a favorable backbuilding environment continuing at least in the short term. Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6+ inches are expected given the very high rainfall rates and convective mode going through early this evening. The recent HRRR guidance has been supporting this, and additional areas of flash flooding are likely which will include locally significant/considerable urban flash flooding impacts. The Mobile metropolitan area will need to continue to closely monitor this activity for enhanced rainfall and flash flooding concerns over the next few hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97y4yS4B8xvjC4kmwc2NgFDY5G7NE8uDIj7fw--El0wAP1fbMFFFCL-rqA_0jMqNvWPo= HF7za1J1YohLonWGn85qaTM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31338653 31008611 30598623 30358667 30258801=20 30258931 30748918 31278787=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .