Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 30 2025 15:40:41 AWUS01 KWNH 301540 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301938- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1138 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Southwest AL...Far Western FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301538Z - 301938Z SUMMARY...Relatively slow-moving and occasionally backbuilding areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will pose a localized threat of flash flooding going through the early to mid-afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a cluster of cooling convective cloud tops associated with heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of far southern MS and stretching eastward into southwest LA and the western parts of the FL Panhandle. The convection which has become rather organized over the last hour is mainly associated with a low-level convergence axis with proximity of a well-defined instability gradient. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches are in place across the area which are contributing to rainfall rates reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells. Some localized backbuilding of these cells are noted and especially over parts of Harrison and Jackson Counties in southern MS. However, stronger convective cells are also slowly evolving into areas of southwest AL as well. Given the cooling cloud top trends, there should tend to be some persistence of these cells over the few hours, and there will be concerns for additional backbuilding and/or training of cells in the near-term given the deeper layer mean flow. The 12Z HREF guidance including some of the recent HRRR guidance suggests as much as an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. Given ongoing convective trends and additional rainfall potential in the near-term, additional localized areas of flash flooding will be possible and this will include a threat for some urban impacts rather close to the Mobile, AL area, and especially areas north and west of here over the next couple of hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!88WA6OD9oqEFl1w1avYnNz_7N_xsPoUgO-Fdd_HC8nxbBqTxm8EGFiRkDXjP5bVA3q__= ujsuVkTAPp13KcgO-M0TohU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31378778 31258683 30788654 30458694 30358760=20 30368842 30698898 31138872=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .