Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0290
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 30 2025 02:58:27

ACUS11 KWNS 300257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300257=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-300500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 300257Z - 300500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across much of Oklahoma over
the next few hours. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows two areas of
severe storms, one in southern Oklahoma and another in western
Oklahoma. The southern Oklahoma cluster is located along a narrow
axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg. The FDR WSR-88D VWP has about 50 knot of 0-6 km shear, which
will continue to support supercell development late this evening.
The TLX WSR-88D VWP has more directional shear in the lowest 2 km
AGL. This strong directional shear is evident on RAP forecast
soundings in central Oklahoma, which have 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for
a tornado threat, as supercells move northeastward across central
Oklahoma late this evening. Increasing surface dewpoints may aid a
developing tornado threat. Forecast soundings in western and
south-central Oklahoma also have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8
C/km. This environment should support a large hail threat. The large
hail threat will likely be maximized with the cluster in
south-central Oklahoma, where right-moving and left-moving
supercells are ongoing. Supercells will also be capable of producing
severe wind gusts.

...Broyles.. 03/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6CLQR1qgX35C138PYBu57vEMuaB3Xm5TYJxbeaI63x2FOSNXnnhYW9P2K2Nn1GrdNc_bpw6yI=
Kk7TUK9wBAh5McXvto$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35479923 35769899 36359822 36769743 36909667 36849552
            36429519 35929522 35349544 34289642 33979718 34069788
            34319883 34849925 35479923=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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