Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0283
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 29 2025 20:52:38

ACUS11 KWNS 292051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292051=20
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-292245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Areas affected...North-central/northeast Kansas...southeast
Nebraska...far southwest Iowa...far Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 292051Z - 292245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop in the
next 1-3 hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Tied to a lead shortwave trough in the central Plains,
cumulus have been deepening along a dryline in central Kansas.
Despite somewhat limited moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s F),
surface heating and forcing from the trough may promote storm
initiation within the next 1-3 hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and 40-45 kts of effective shear orthogonal to the dryline would
promote discrete storms capable of large hail and strong/damaging
winds. Low-level hodograph curvature is sufficient for some
low-level rotation and potentially a brief tornado, but a generally
dry boundary layer will likely limit that threat.

...Wendt/Smith.. 03/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5_WsuObXXo4wqgFbD1w-XpAG_qcGuFPz0qNEu64X-nuMe27niq0PRQ9Ty766Bx_EMa88o3uN7=
iVuZdZTTCMej94r64w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38509735 39569767 40109759 40729641 40819596 40659558
            40049532 39459533 38509735=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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