Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 29 2025 00:50:15 ACUS01 KWNS 290046 SWODY1 SPC AC 290045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ....01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ....Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ...Kerr.. 03/29/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .