Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0279
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 29 2025 00:29:35

ACUS11 KWNS 290026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290025=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...far northwest...Iowa...and far
northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290025Z - 290230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms capable of producing
locally damaging wind gusts (around 60 mph) and marginally severe
hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along a
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front extending from southern MN
into far northeast IA and northeast NE. Earlier diurnal heating
beneath an EML plume has resulted in steep deep-layer lapse rates
and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front. While instability is
marginal, 30-40 kt of effective shear oriented parallel/oblique to
the surface front will support small, loosely organized clusters
capable of producing locally damaging winds gusts (around 60 mph)
and marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) for the next few hours.
Given the flow orientation to the southeastward-moving cold front,
there may be a tendency for upscale growth into a line, before being
undercut by the front. Therefore, any severe risk is expected to
remain fairly brief (through around 02-03Z).

...Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4JcL-k9g5555nG_kfugzKIl5fH2Yr0rv6MevBNz2KCwzSabnqOpTdeUWLvjY2kjauUH1Q6Zmf=
kJhog5TRN_6OAS3Czk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42769743 43589589 44159453 44619270 44539214 44099222
            43649401 43249506 42339688 42489738 42769743=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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