Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0275
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 28 2025 19:04:25

ACUS11 KWNS 281903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281902=20
TXZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the middle/upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281902Z - 282030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado could
accompany storms near the middle/upper Texas coast this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has evolved early this afternoon
near the middle TX coast, immediately in advance of a midlevel
vorticity maximum embedded within a larger mid/upper trough over
central/south TX. Modest diurnal heating has allowed MLCAPE to rise
near 1000 J/kg downstream of this cluster, with some development of
deep convection also noted closer to Galveston Bay.=20

While flow in the lowest 3 km has weakened somewhat compared to this
morning (as noted on the KHGX VWP), modestly favorable low-level
shear/SRH remains in place across the region. The ongoing storm
cluster earlier produced a 55 mph gust, and strong to isolated
severe gusts will remain possible through the afternoon before this
cluster moves offshore, and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled
out.

...Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5QxuB213IRwRvkcQ3QOyTGf3vG_sg9q0jMh49zt_N8pihb_Fxij3fY9zVjdHgDmqP9l3vkBH0=
tSssj0sI8m7jbCyk2A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   29459599 29919504 29899457 29829437 29459443 29219450
            29099470 28809530 28519578 28409606 28379634 28539630
            29459599=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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