Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 28 2025 12:43:13 ACUS01 KWNS 281242 SWODY1 SPC AC 281240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ....Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ....Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ...Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .