Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0272
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 27 2025 23:22:29

ACUS11 KWNS 272321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272321=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-280115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and adjacent southern
Nebraska/northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272321Z - 280115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are undergoing a period of intensification
which may persist at least through 8-9 PM CDT.  An upscale growing
cluster accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts
is possible, in addition to a continuing risk for severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Embedded within 20-30 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer
mean flow, initially high-based thunderstorm development is
undergoing intensification as it acquires more moist and potentially
unstable southeasterly inflow near/northwest through north of Salina
KS.  Mid/upper 50s F surface dew points, along and north of the
Interstate 70 corridor into the Nebraska state border vicinity of
northeastern Kansas, appear to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE
in excess of 2000 J/kg.=20=20

Although objective analysis and forecast soundings indicate the
continuing presence of mid-level inhibition, forcing along
convective outflow may maintain and perhaps support a further
increase in convection through the 00-02Z time frame.  Coupled with
strengthening low-level warm advection, aided by an intensifying
low-level jet (30-50 kt around 850 mb), an upscale growing cluster
with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts might not
be entirely out of the question into this evening.

...Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6CHhHBYG-twCHxNl7MwJK2rP9djiOURh7nspN1taAOK1juKvbZTTtkSV5AH879UlIIGuhQV7R=
yiedTuvIUHTIPhAAy0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39589793 39969709 40009602 39569456 38699482 38629633
            38609750 38859782 39589793=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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