Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 26 2025 04:30:15 AWUS01 KWNH 260430 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1229 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Areas affected...south-central OK into northern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260428Z - 261015Z SUMMARY...Repeating and training of thunderstorms from south central OK into portions of northern TX may produce localized flash flooding later tonight. Potential for 2 to 4 inches along with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr (locally higher) will exist through 10Z. DISCUSSION...A combination of GOES East infrared satellite and regional radar imagery at 04Z showed widely scattered thunderstorms from northeast of DAL to south of OKC. Cloud tops were generally warming over TX but new development was occurring across south-central OK where low to mid-level moisture transport was allowing for generally weak instability to build northward from the Red River, north of a quasi-stationary front analyzed over northern TX. The new development was occurring at the nose of a 30-35 kt 850 mb low level jet as sampled by VAD wind data at KDYX and KFWS, about 10-15 kt stronger than F000 and F001 hour RAP guidance suggests. Nocturnal strengthening of the low level jet is expected to continue through ~06Z with a max axis between SPS and GYI, supporting the overrunning of the quasi-stationary front. A relatively small pocket of elevated instability between 500 and 1500 J/kg is forecast by the RAP to be in place from between I-20 and I-40 on either side of I-35 over the next several hours, but should lower in magnitude toward 12Z. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage over south-central OK over the next 1-3 hours, with mean steering flow aligned roughly parallel to the surface front, repeating cells along with instances of training are expected. However, any clustering of thunderstorms may result in more of a southward propagation of cells into the inflow layer. Sufficient speed shear exists for some organized thunderstorms and elements of training heavy rainfall could result in rates of 1-2 in/hr, though earlier convection near Dallas in southern Collin County was responsible for ~1 inch of rain in 15 minutes, so 1-2 inches in less than 1 hour will certainly be possible tonight. Dry antecedent conditions and high flash flood guidance should limit any flash flood concerns to urban areas or otherwise sensitive, poorly draining locations. 2-4 inches will be possible on a localized basis through 10Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7yir3J56soxSS-WTlk0RRuhnRmeEBBntW-T8chuI9ezLR2FYrpUV5D0v_OxihHksyxMk= SwLYT73PzJO9zk3vZN3nmsQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35359778 34899659 34079496 33429390 32739422=20 32789547 33469733 34739858 35199836=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .