Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0263
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 25 2025 21:46:26

ACUS11 KWNS 252146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252145=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Areas affected...a small part of north-central Texas into far
south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252145Z - 260015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated, marginally severe storm or two may develop
over a small part of North Texas, and perhaps into far south-central
Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and radar indicate towering CU and
deepening convective showers along I-35, especially from Dallas
southward. Very little lift is present, though weak surface
convergence is noted. Although the air mass is uncapped due to
temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, convection has
been fighting both dry air aloft and lack of a lifting mechanism.

That said, further CU clustering / deepening is expected, and a
storm or two is expected. Any storms that develop will have brief
hail or locally strong gust potential, with relatively short
longevity. The steep lapse rates and modest northwest flow may favor
slow south/southeastward-moving cells affecting a limited area in
the near term.

...Jewell/Gleason.. 03/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!48mTKY-BJrChWbXfe_2v8EG1JEgHRcPGIVNlzqNxgs_M3c_H1IhSFZWHw5pRg3diUlUKwRdae=
vfY-Oop5h29dUHUAGo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31639802 32729775 33419764 34139764 34489770 34679747
            34729702 34459668 33089655 32119672 31389707 31209747
            31279789 31639802=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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