Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 25 2025 12:54:00 ACUS01 KWNS 251253 SWODY1 SPC AC 251252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ....Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ....Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ...Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .