Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 24 2025 19:23:50

ACUS03 KWNS 241923
SWODY3
SPC AC 241922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
OR/WA/NORTHERN ID...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

....Pacific Northwest...
Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe
potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall
scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts
of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern
OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in
later outlooks.

A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific
Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet,
near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas
west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record
high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified
mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer
wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support
potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes
by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be
progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply
mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving
north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID
during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated
severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime.

...Grams.. 03/24/2025

$$

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