Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 24 2025 09:04:36 ACUS48 KWNS 240904 SWOD48 SPC AC 240902 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. ...Goss.. 03/24/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .