Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 24 2025 07:40:34

FOUS30 KWBC 240740
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 25 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON STATE...

....Olympic Peninsula and Northern Cascades in Northwest=20
Washington... A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall will continue=20
during Day 1 over the Olympic Ranges and across the foothills and=20
western slopes of the northern Cascades, as the modest Atmospheric
River slowly diminishes today and Monday night. Given continuation
of the AR event, this too is a continuation of the previous=20
(yesterday's) ERO, albeit with a drop in the category across the=20
board. In other words, a Marginal Risk is in effect across areas=20
where there was a Slight in yesterday's D1 ERO, while areas in=20
yesterday's Marginal are now within the <5% probability of=20
exceeding flash flood guidance.=20

Latest guidance shows an atmospheric river continuing to impact=20
the region, but also gradually waning through the period. The 00Z=20
GEFS shows IVTs decreasing from ~500 kg/m/sec early in the period=20
to 300-350 kg/m/sec, as a ridge continues to build and onshore=20
flow into the region diminishes. As the AR diminishes, so will the=20
potential for additional heavy precipitation. However, the continued
moisture flux into the region early in the period may be sufficient
for additional amounts of 2-3 inches, as indicated by the 00Z=20
HREF. These amounts along with additional snowmelt may prolong=20
runoff concerns.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 26 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flooding guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Mar 27 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flooding guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4blI30We_bX3_nZkXsvEhBt0K81wkFBg7wDUQ_Cfaz1M=
RhRssFYkVfQ3kWR3A5mF_upBgQ_NaMBSYvmGO6zR-rc88ts$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4blI30We_bX3_nZkXsvEhBt0K81wkFBg7wDUQ_Cfaz1M=
RhRssFYkVfQ3kWR3A5mF_upBgQ_NaMBSYvmGO6zRepbyZT8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4blI30We_bX3_nZkXsvEhBt0K81wkFBg7wDUQ_Cfaz1M=
RhRssFYkVfQ3kWR3A5mF_upBgQ_NaMBSYvmGO6zRJpoYumU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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