Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 23 2025 09:04:11

ACUS48 KWNS 230904
SWOD48
SPC AC 230902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with
large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which
time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered.  A weak
surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across
Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying
northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas.
However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the
Plains should suppress convection to some degree.  This, along with
modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the
area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High
Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening.

On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to
undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern
Plains with time.  While overall instability should once again
remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a
few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and
evening.  One area of more focused potential for a few storms
appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near
the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon
storms may also occur across portions of western Texas.

Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this
divergence increasing through the end of the period.  Models hint
that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and
into/across the Plains Days (next weekend).  This would be
associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward
moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft.  Thus, while
severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models
with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident
introduction of risk areas at this time.

...Goss.. 03/23/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.