Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 21 2025 19:05:33 ACUS03 KWNS 211905 SWODY3 SPC AC 211904 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, especially over northern Mississippi. ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the central CONUS as a surface cyclone drifts over the Great Lakes and an associated cold front sweeps across the OH Valley to Lower MS Valley regions on Sunday. Relatively rich low-level moisture will advect northeastward across the Lower MS Valley with the aid of a departing low-level jet, promoting enough buoyancy amid a sheared airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. ....Lower MS Valley... As the surface cold front approaches the Lower MS/TN Valley regions Sunday afternoon, surface heating across the warm sector will support temperatures rising into the 70s F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints. An EML is poised to overspread this warm/moist low-level airmass, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg in spots, but also introducing some convective inhibition within the 850-700 mb layer. Since stronger upper-level support will drift to the northeast with time, the primary forcing mechanism for convection will be low-level convergence associated with the surface cold front. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear, multicells, supercells, and short line segments are the expected modes for any thunderstorms that can mature and become established. At least severe wind/hail will accompany these storms, assuming they do not become immediately undercut by the cold front. Tornado potential is somewhat less certain given aforementioned concerns with inhibition and an undercutting cold front. However, the trailing/residual portion of a southwesterly low-level jet will persist across northern MS by late Sunday afternoon/early evening, contributing to sizeable, curved low-level hodographs. If surface heating can overcome inhibition to support any sustained, robust convective updrafts appreciably ahead of the cold front, supercells could develop with a tornado threat. However, confidence in this scenario is low at this time. ...Squitieri.. 03/21/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .