Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 20 2025 19:11:57

ACUS03 KWNS 201911
SWODY3
SPC AC 201911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible
on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau.

....MO/OK/KS/AR...
No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe
hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with
potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook.

The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the
northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified
moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly
expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some
models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew
points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will
likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening
forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as
Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage
during the night.

Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the
geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable
speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The
potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread
cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall
coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of
convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks
given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height
change through 12Z Sunday.

...Grams.. 03/20/2025

$$

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