Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 17 2025 19:29:29

ACUS03 KWNS 171929
SWODY3
SPC AC 171928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND
WESTERN IN...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern
Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early
evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

....Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South...
In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe
potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary
limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At
present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to
mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a
ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening
plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by
Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf
Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into
the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley.

A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of
the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on
Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by
early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in
IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal
that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat
veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few
supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible,
centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon
to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary
hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too.

Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of
the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective
development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds
should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe
potential across the TN Valley/Deep South.

...Grams.. 03/17/2025

$$

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