Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 17 2025 19:07:39 FOUS30 KWBC 171907 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Mar 17 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 18 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Taylor Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Taylor Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Mar 20 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. A strengthening low pressure system moving into the Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 3 may bring a low-end threat of excessive rainfall and flooding to portions of eastern Iowa, southern=20 Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. Elevated convection lifting=20 east/northeast along the advancing warm front could produce intense enough rain rates to cause some runoff issues. However,=20 uncertainty in the low track (rain/snow line) precludes an=20 introduction of a Marginal Risk at this time.=20 Further south along the trailing cold front, a line of showers and thunderstorms is likely to form across portions of the OH/TN=20 Valleys. QPF amounts look modest at this time and convection should be fairly progressive. However, given recent heavy rainfall and=20 wet antecedent conditions, this area will need to be monitored in=20 future updates if QPF trends higher or storm motions slow.=20 Taylor Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8nzyzVJSdttWqPpxwxOeaj7375UNzjGYSgHPAzzRKNyv= 7aw7uVw6_2bRWK63XO0d4_yYXK9EDyfPBmZ1LyOU6skzqnM$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8nzyzVJSdttWqPpxwxOeaj7375UNzjGYSgHPAzzRKNyv= 7aw7uVw6_2bRWK63XO0d4_yYXK9EDyfPBmZ1LyOUw75RzWQ$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8nzyzVJSdttWqPpxwxOeaj7375UNzjGYSgHPAzzRKNyv= 7aw7uVw6_2bRWK63XO0d4_yYXK9EDyfPBmZ1LyOUR8YWHjQ$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .