Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 17 2025 07:30:25

ACUS03 KWNS 170730
SWODY3
SPC AC 170729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of
the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and
northern Gulf Coast states.

....Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf
Coast States...
At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail
potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa
into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north
and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri
Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a
strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid
Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be
located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee
and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist
axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern
Gulf Coast states.

Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near
the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a
passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very
strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an
isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late
afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe
gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of
storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of
northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama,
where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support
isolated supercell development.

...Broyles.. 03/17/2025

$$

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