Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 17 2025 05:29:25

ACUS01 KWNS 170529
SWODY1
SPC AC 170527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop
along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into
the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a
cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon,
a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during
the day1 period.

Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will
approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max
translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold
mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such
that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop,
especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold
temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary
for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more
than very small hail with this activity.

...Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025

$$

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