Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 17 2025 00:38:24

ACUS01 KWNS 170038
SWODY1
SPC AC 170037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.

....01Z Update...

Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.

...Darrow.. 03/17/2025

$$

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