Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0219
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 16 2025 05:48:17

ACUS11 KWNS 160548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160547=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-160645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 160547Z - 160645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization will support a continued threat of
wind damage and a few tornadoes into central/southwest GA and the
eastern FL Panhandle through early morning.  A new tornado may be
needed after 06z.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms with embedded bow/supercell
characteristics is moving east-northeastward into west central GA,
with continued storm development farther southwest along a
confluence zone across southeast AL.  The storms are along the
eastern edge of the richer low-level moisture, but a 70 kt low-level
jet will result in sufficient moisture transport near/just above the
surface to maintain the convection for the next several hours.=20
Given the very strong low-level shear/large hodographs, the
potential for occasional wind damage and embedded
circulations/tornadoes will persist.  Thus, a new tornado watch will
likely be needed into central/southwest GA and the eastern FL
Panhandle after 06z.

...Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!990n0Z6DxP-edctS7xWp53oEm-ClSLXNqCJ-NX53TJPgM6NqhwD5bG1qYTjkgQiNTJhzmGmgW=
nh244v5n1DP1cPV3Kg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   33318405 34148361 33888277 32888240 32038286 31438316
            29898384 29788541 31298501 31928468 33318405=20


=3D =3D =3D
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