Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 16 2025 03:27:30

AWUS01 KWNH 160326
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-160925-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...middle/eastern Tennessee into central Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160325Z - 160925Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across large portions of
Tennessee and Kentucky.  This risk should gradually end from west
to east as a surface trough migrates eastward across the area
through 09Z.

Discussion...Widespread heavy rainfall for much of the day has wet
soils and caused many reports of flash flooding today especially
across Middle Tennessee.  2-7 inch storm total amounts have
fallen, and flash flood guidance depicts widespread areas of
near-zero hourly thresholds from far northwestern Alabama through
north-central Kentucky at the latest update.  Meanwhile,
widespread rainfall continues to occur. Most of the rainfall is
light in nature and related to a strong convective MCS centered
over Alabama.  A narrow corridor of stronger convection has
redeveloped from near Nashville to Huntsville, however, that
contains areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times.  This corridor of
stronger convection likely represents the end of the heavy
rainfall threat as it shift eastward across the discussion area
through the early overnight hours as only lighter/isolated shower
activity is noted to its west.

Between now and 09Z, another 0.5-1 inch of rainfall can be
expected areawide (with locally higher amounts).  These rainfall
totals will exacerbate ongoing flooding and perhaps lead to
additional runoff problems in sensitive areas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9dN27J2wElsZ0LJKjflZPrbFzsvJ7zDOs7MCr5Bq9ZmTYbn3GXJVizrxZ1i4jQ9mXhbk=
48RZ5tme3tJFwH3cbpWvU2o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38698453 38528347 37578314 36048367 35078458=20
            35028645 35758673 36858638 38318563=20

=3D =3D =3D
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