Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 16 2025 02:10:15

AWUS01 KWNH 160209
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...east-central Alabama into
west-central/northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160207Z - 160600Z

Summary...A cluster of intense convection was producing areas of
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just south of the Birmingham Metro area.
Some concern exists that this activity could persist eastward,
eventually reaching the Atlanta Metro area through 04Z/midnight
EDT.

Discussion...Deep, intense convection has materialized throughout
a strongly sheared, unstable warm sector across
central/southwestern Alabama today.  More recently, a cluster of
strong storms (including LEWPs/bows and trailing/training
convection) has produced a localized area of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates just south of Birmingham over the past 1-2 hours.  These
rates were approaching FFG thresholds (generally in the 2-inch/hr
range), and areas of at least minor excessive runoff are apparent
given MRMS Flash responses across the region.

Some concern exists that this complex will persist northeastward,
likely crossing the AL/GA border region by 03Z and reaching
portions of the Atlanta Metro area through/after 04Z.  The extent
of the flash flood threat may be mitigated by weaker downstream
instability (upper 50s F surface dewpoints contributing to only
around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), which could weaken updraft intensity.=20
However, current convective organization and strong shear should
maintain heavier downpours downstream into northwestern Georgia
and result in at least a few areas of 1 inch/hr rainfall rates -
potentially affecting populated areas such as Atlanta Metro.=20
Given the scenario, at least an isolated flash flood threat should
evolve with this convective cluster through 06Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6PkgW2rrRmHcCDSXjUmR1bBndN5Ha0sfrL1oFVZ-5d3mQFMLQT_odohRJTK106XMbTuo=
ega-CxuyvNF2pZP_4Qx8dwg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34518516 34418416 33868353 33298349 32998378=20
            32578531 32368759 33128757 34098620=20

=3D =3D =3D
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