Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0202
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 16:54:09

ACUS11 KWNS 151654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151653=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-151830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Louisiana into south and
east-central Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

Valid 151653Z - 151830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for long-track intense to violent
tornadoes through mid-afternoon is across portions of southern into
east-central Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence
band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these
supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the
maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and
these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear
and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into
peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to
violent tornadoes.

Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St.
Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in
Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are
near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity
sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6.
In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was
launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability
downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest
potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours.

...Bentley.. 03/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-MRCFp62DXJ6x-IIAjyzizqYx40AQFYKTYxy0csdii4MJ3pssN_Cs0j1rSGNyvr3c21Dji_fv=
rBFDbNCfa9l03HBgvw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30489109 30749101 31449069 32049046 32819010 33088977
            33388871 33018834 32378845 31818849 31288858 30838917
            30529025 30489109=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.