Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0194
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 09:49:38

ACUS11 KWNS 150949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150949=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Louisiana into the Ark-La-Miss

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 150949Z - 151115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm/tornado threat will increase this
morning as storm spread east-northeastward from Texas, and new
storms developing along the instability gradient from northwest LA
into the Ark-La-Miss.  A new tornado watch is likely before 11z.

DISCUSSION...In response to forcing for ascent in the exit region of
a 100-120 kt upper jet streak, thunderstorms are ongoing in the
instability gradient across east central and southeast TX.  As the
ascent spreads east-northeastward through sunrise, additional
thunderstorm development is likely from northwest LA into the
Ark-La-Miss.  Continued northward moisture transport across LA and a
gradual increase in low-level flow/shear (in response to weak
cyclogenesis) will contribute to a more favorable supercell/tornado
environment through the morning.  Thus, a new tornado watch will
likely be needed before 11z.

...Thompson/Smith.. 03/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!73Wq8Zr0oqIh5rJJAb0QtJeOMbQojS0_26wam6uAx2cveolIN_Z57XNJ2QCQ_1Xt6gmacsbNn=
UM8i1uYOa0QAAymIiE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   34738915 33408971 31619139 31199215 31049303 31089347
            31489369 32049398 32439401 33029352 33459297 34219197
            34759099 35179002 35188937 34738915=20


=3D =3D =3D
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