Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0193
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 07:32:59

ACUS11 KWNS 150732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150732=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast and east central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 150732Z - 150830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage/intensity
the next few hours, with an increasing threat for large hail and
wind damage.  A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed by 08z.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of ascent in the left-exit region of
an upper jet streak is impinging on a slow-moving cold front and the
northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture across southeast TX.
Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will favor
organized/supercell storms as convection increases through the early
morning, with large hail and damaging gusts the primary threats.  A
new severe thunderstorm watch is likely in the next hour.

...Thompson/Smith.. 03/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4z5O6KaT_mckRwKnYwfi7jy-sNLw_0ri1GKZHC-OVSS_oKvht5IUfiF05mmLjR-yPZq5iQSD9=
ryTVwrgm1mnz6AujGk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31179363 30469451 30069645 30349678 30829680 31349603
            32159465 32039401 31179363=20


=3D =3D =3D
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