Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0189
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 04:58:20

ACUS11 KWNS 150457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150457=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 150457Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging winds will spread eastward into
northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest RAP-based objective analysis shows only weak
buoyancy across southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, but
very strong flow aloft exists ahead of the advancing upper low.  As
such, and given dry lower-tropospheric air across the region
providing evaporative potential, it appears that locally damaging
winds will remain possible with the advancing band of convection now
crossing northern Illinois.  As such, new WW issuance may be
required.

...Goss/Mosier.. 03/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8TXQXIS2lGTK1BJ6XffKVSHGyt_Wbib9oWQ5Qn21GScUyjzCrvH4lw8tGxF31X5JTFvgWclfv=
hfQcfVPGJfQkeppvGM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41538755 42448616 42108525 41168475 40538502 40418674
            41538755=20


=3D =3D =3D
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