Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0183
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 02:30:56

ACUS11 KWNS 150230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150230=20
ARZ000-150430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...South-central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 150230Z - 150430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development across south-central Arkansas
appears probable in the coming hours as a dryline shifts east. Watch
issuance will likely be needed in this region to address this
threat.

DISCUSSION...KLZK and GOES IR imagery show thunderstorm development
southward along a dryline from the Hot Spring, AR region southward
towards Texarkana. 02 UTC upper air analyses suggest that low to
mid-level winds are not quite as strong compared to northern AR;
however, a strengthening low-level jet sampled by KLZK and KSHV VWPs
is supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. Improving
low-level kinematics combined with slightly better surface
moisture/MLCAPE is yielding STP values on the order of 2-4, which
implies a robust tornado environment is in place downstream of the
developing convection. Discrete to semi-discrete supercells
migrating into this air mass may be capable of very large hail (1.5
to 2.0 inches in diameter) and potentially significant (EF-2+)
tornadoes. Watch issuance will likely be needed in the near term to
address this potential.

...Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8PiGnisNMkB_mguzGn1Ap9WLU-oyC-kdOHiaPOm_bSYicxdEPwtKNvGcNzXBYihIjh8pbFAZD=
i7FpcZ-h4e0PSI6DrM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33439383 33849363 34489329 34599284 34519185 34259154
            33989151 33689166 33419182 33199205 33089230 33049260
            33049302 33069338 33109362 33179377 33439383=20


=3D =3D =3D
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