Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0180
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 01:43:32

ACUS11 KWNS 150143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150143=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-150345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...Central Arkansas into far south-central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 150143Z - 150345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple supercells across central/north-central AR will
pose an increasing tornado threat as they migrate eastward through
the next couple of hours, including the potential for a significant
tornado.

DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of northwest AR are becoming
increasingly organized with several well-defined mid-level
mesocyclones evident in KLZK and KSGF velocity imagery. These storms
are moving into an environment characterized by STP values on the
order of 3-5, which is largely being driven by a corridor of warm
air advection between 925-850 mb over north-central AR. This diffuse
warm frontal zone is supporting veering winds through the lowest 2
km with a 0-1 km SRH value of 300 m2/s2 sampled by the 00z LZK
sounding and around 450 m2/s2 recently sampled by the KLZK VWP. This
environment is typically supportive of robust, long-lived supercells
with an attendant threat for tornadoes, including significant
(EF-2+) tornadoes. The aforementioned convective trends suggest that
cells are beginning to realize this environment and that the
downstream tornado threat is likely increasing across central to
north-central AR.

...Moore.. 03/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_F4FmGSkC2GRKSfwF1_3yXUYXT4sSERvmADSa-pPcyV1-gmJuUKPTEAPtn11tN6-tAJ9ti2w_=
zS-wvljJPPnEkOyExg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34949341 35369323 35919296 36399258 36599234 36819141
            36799115 36629090 36399083 36139100 35809120 35109178
            34769215 34699252 34699289 34719318 34799340 34949341=20


=3D =3D =3D
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