Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 10 2025 00:48:56

FOUS30 KWBC 100048
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Mar 10 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 10 2025

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....0100 UTC Update...
Based on the latest observational trends (radar, satellite, and=20
mesoanalysis), have expanded the western portion of the Marginal
Risk area a bit to include the rest of the FL Panhandle, along with
more of southeast and south-central AL. This area lies within the
secondary TPW axis (TROWAL) that extends northwest toward the mid=20
level circulation, while also within a pool of 500-1000+ J/Kg
MUCAPEs. While isolated, additional convective clusters developing
from the peak left-exit region upper jet forcing and DPVA will be
capable of hourly or sub-hourly rainfall rates around 1.5", thus
localized short-fused runoff issues will be possible overnight
within these areas.

Otherwise, very few changes made to the Slight Risk area, outside
of trimming the back (western) portion a bit. Similar to the=20
previous discussion, still expecting a narrow swath of 3 to 5+=20
inches overnight through 12Z Monday, though fortunately per the
recent HRRR trends along with the 18Z HREF output, the heaviest
swath overnight will likely be displaced farther south-southeast
(across North FL) from where the heaviest had fallen during the=20
day and evening (across the western and central FL Panhandle).=20

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 10 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto/Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 12 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto/Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-3__KOG9voq8RKeUotc5rzDlV6jxHLdrfhV9rykKDOt2=
w_bDhkBINQchiDL06gijJLqacE0dEiT8fdLOBFjGStEXvuI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-3__KOG9voq8RKeUotc5rzDlV6jxHLdrfhV9rykKDOt2=
w_bDhkBINQchiDL06gijJLqacE0dEiT8fdLOBFjGS5-Ua-Q$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-3__KOG9voq8RKeUotc5rzDlV6jxHLdrfhV9rykKDOt2=
w_bDhkBINQchiDL06gijJLqacE0dEiT8fdLOBFjG5AGs1TE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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