Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 07 2025 09:10:53 ACUS48 KWNS 070910 SWOD48 SPC AC 070909 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ....DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. ...Leitman.. 03/07/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .