Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 07 2025 05:43:58 ACUS01 KWNS 070543 SWODY1 SPC AC 070542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ....DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ...Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .