Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0147
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 05 2025 13:52:45

ACUS11 KWNS 051351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051350=20
VAZ000-051545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Areas affected...south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051350Z - 051545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A risk of damaging gusts or a brief tornado will gradually
increase across parts of southern Virginia. A watch may eventually
be needed.

DISCUSSION...A strongly forced low-topped convective line continues
to push east across western VA and NC, with a rather wide region of
rain as well. Instability is weak but shear is quite strong. As
persistent southerly winds bring greater theta-e into the region,
temperatures rising into the 60s should eventually yield sufficient
low-level buoyancy to support strong gusts or a brief QLCS tornado.
Prior to any substantial boundary-layer destabilization, any severe
risk will likely remain tied to the forced line.

...Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5VUapRSNDpHmUTwe-uNm5X8ticQTuazm-2Lww17Rr8Tghemw0ug7FR2ZmLWdqErArMM80gVc5=
XIbxwHPt7xdJKUonBk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

LAT...LON   36897984 37757841 37797764 37417705 36747700 36577714
            36577963 36597987 36707994 36897984=20


=3D =3D =3D
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