Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 05 2025 07:40:29

ACUS03 KWNS 050739
SWODY3
SPC AC 050738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S.
Friday through Friday night.

....Discussion...
A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over
southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening
during this period, with a new primary center developing and
migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and
Labrador.  In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow
characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great
Lakes vicinity through Northeast.

As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of
a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific,
mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and
east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low
within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern
California coast by 12Z Friday.  This perturbation is forecast to
turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border
vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly
sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle
Mississippi Valley.

In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent
surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken
considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a
reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland
Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday
night.

Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop
across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between
southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.  However, models
indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the
lower/mid-troposphere.

....Four Corners States...
Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and
southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold
and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to
minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity.

...Kerr.. 03/05/2025

$$

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