Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0129
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 04 2025 12:24:14

ACUS11 KWNS 041222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041222=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-041445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 18...

Valid 041222Z - 041445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line with history of damaging winds may remain
severe as it approaches the Arkansas border.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front remains over
northeast OK and extending southward roughly near the OK/AR border.
Pressure falls are currently strong in this region with over 2 mb
falls per hour noted. As such, it is likely that the low-level jet
is transporting higher theta-e air northward, perhaps just off the
surface. Therefore, while surface observations otherwise indicate
weak/marginal instability extending into the northwest AR area, it
is not inconceivable that the line remains severe into those areas
with damaging wind potential.=20

Depending on storm trends, an additional small watch cannot be ruled
out.

...Jewell.. 03/04/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Z-7SUevn0DhWf06r85fXiMaokOzE5hv34ZDUMT-fQc-vdnyflAFLAQQ4icu9IBl7M2nXG8lb=
qr40vndLrd-1B1Ujlk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34919399 34539419 34389508 34209577 34819575 35529579
            35799602 36229565 36349505 36409407 36259392 34919399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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