Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 04 2025 06:02:02 ACUS01 KWNS 040601 SWODY1 SPC AC 040600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ....Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ....Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ....Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ...Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .