Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 03 2025 19:27:40 ACUS03 KWNS 031926 SWODY3 SPC AC 031925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ....Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ....Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ....Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ...Dean.. 03/03/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .