Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 03 2025 17:35:29 ACUS02 KWNS 031735 SWODY2 SPC AC 031733 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ....Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ....ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ....Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ...Dean.. 03/03/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .