Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 03 2025 09:55:58

ACUS48 KWNS 030955
SWOD48
SPC AC 030954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from
the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary
cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes
late this week.  In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level
flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale
troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast.

As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one
emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed
surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday
into Friday.  It appears this will occur before western Gulf
boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level
moistening on southerly return flow.

As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime,
models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across
the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley.  But a trailing cold
front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as
an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big
Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend.  This
may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of
the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on
Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear.  This
could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of
organized strong thunderstorm development.  However, barring
stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast,
the severe weather potential still appears relatively low.

...Kerr.. 03/03/2025

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