Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 02 2025 19:33:53 ACUS03 KWNS 021933 SWODY3 SPC AC 021932 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ....Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ....Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ....Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ....Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ...Wendt.. 03/02/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .