Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 02 2025 17:31:57 ACUS02 KWNS 021731 SWODY2 SPC AC 021730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ....Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ....Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ....Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ...Wendt.. 03/02/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .