Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 02 2025 15:15:25

FOUS30 KWBC 021514
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 05 2025

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

A pattern change will bring widespread precipitation to much of the
Central and Southeast CONUS, as a cut-off low/upper-level trough
and associated surface cyclone progress across the middle portion
of the country. QPF maxima are expected across two general regions,
near the Mid-South (primarily in associated with precipitation from
the broad open warm sector and subsequent cold frontal passage)=20
and much of IA into northern MO (mainly from the pivoting low=20
pressure center as it occludes/matures). While flash flood impact=20
coverage should remain somewhat limited in both areas (low-end=20
Slight risk probabilities) with relatively dry antecedent=20
conditions and a rather progressive storm system motion, the very=20
dynamic nature of the system is likely to bring strong convection
with localized totals nearing 2" in a short period (though a
portion of the QPF over IA is likely to be in the form of snow on
the back-end of the low). Barring any major changes in the=20
forecast strength and progression of the storm system, impacts are=20
likely to be capped at the Slight threshold with better refinement=20
of the areas impacted with the addition of CAM data over the next=20
couple of days.=20

Churchill


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7ekrllC-NShWqjGDXFVvOdYVWBXMJz6lTmhFq0Iwt4zv=
9d2bvf_2yTqn9Y7n2dmPVpn5Cfd-CxowzDe9KgfFIvJBlrg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7ekrllC-NShWqjGDXFVvOdYVWBXMJz6lTmhFq0Iwt4zv=
9d2bvf_2yTqn9Y7n2dmPVpn5Cfd-CxowzDe9KgfFx69BWpw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7ekrllC-NShWqjGDXFVvOdYVWBXMJz6lTmhFq0Iwt4zv=
9d2bvf_2yTqn9Y7n2dmPVpn5Cfd-CxowzDe9KgfF2fMDIDk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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