Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 01 2025 19:51:37

ACUS01 KWNS 011951
SWODY1
SPC AC 011949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

....20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable
conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US.
An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but
coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion.

...Lyons.. 03/01/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and
satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very
little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over
southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance
eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong
large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak
instability until later this evening, mainly on the
subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually
move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the
potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very
limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS
through tonight.

$$

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